Argentina – Election in continental code (translation)

 ** Article published in Argentinian version of El Tiempo.
Originally published at: http://www.telesurtv.net/bloggers/Balotaje-en-clave-continental-20151029-0004.html

By Juan Manuel Karg

29 October 2015

The upcoming 22nd of November. Argentina will go to the a second round of elections for the first time in the history of the country, faced with two antagonistic political models; that expressed by the Front For Victory (Frente Para la Victoria), presently in government, and that headed by the conservative coalition, PRO+UCR1, that looks to retake political power in the country after twelve years of Kirchnerist governments.

What is the regional importance that these elections have? Why are the Latin American right-wing huddled waiting for a hypothetical triumph of Macri? The novelty of the closeness between Daniel Scioli (FPV) and Maurico Macri (PRO), expressed at the ballot box the past 25th of October, has already passed, it necessary to realise that the insertion of the second round in Argentina is the framework of a regional debate.

To contextualise: after the decisive elections in Argentina two important electoral dates in Latin America will take place. The 6th of December Venezuela should renew its National Assembly, in a growing contest between the pro-government PSUV2 and the conservative alliance MUD3; and the 21st of February of the coming year Bolivia will got to the ballot box to define if will allow Evo Morales Ayma to stand again for a new presidential period.

Therefore Henrique Capriles took a stance, scarcely knowing the news of the second round in Argentina, saying that “the big challenge that Mauricio Macri has if he wants to win the election is to be the leader of change”. What is Capriles after? That a hypothetical triumph of Mauricio Macri might strengthen the Venezuela right, to look to the 6th of December to overcome Chavismo4 at the ballot box, something that hasn't happened ever – with the exception of the 2007 referendum – since Chávez arrive to Miraflores5 in 1999.

In similar manner the Bolivia cement business owner, Samuel Doria Medina – also an ex-presidential candidate –did the same by saluting “the unity lead by Macri, unity that will be a victory 22-N”, in order to later annouce that “a new time arrives”. What is the intention of Doria Medina? That a hypothetical triumph of Macri might strengthen the “NO” a possible renomination of Evo Morales. You also have to highlight the link of Ecuatorian banker and leader of the opposition to Rafael Correa, Guillermo Lasso, who said that “the struggle of Mauricio Macri inspires us and fills us with energy to reach better days in Ecuador”.

Verifying an advance of the right in Argentina could have direct repercussions not only in the elections of Venezuela and Bolivia, but also in the institutional framework that the region has constructed during these years. An example: Will Mercosur6 will in a “flexibilisation” - such as Aécio Neves in Brazil and Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou in Uruguay were demanding in their respective campaigns in 2014 – so that the member countries can sign FTA in a direct way with, for example, the European Union? Judging by the document presented last April by the “Consensus Group” - space of encounter of the guides of international politics of the PRO and of radicalism -, yes, asking “to strengthen our relations with Europe and the United States” and advancing in a “fast, broad and frank discussion with our partners in Mercosur”, looking for an opening towards the Pacific Alliance7.

It isn't hare-brained, then, with these important elements, to consider that the second round in Argentina will have a significance that surpasses, by far, the borders of the country. It puts in play, such as happened in the elections in Venezuela in 2013 and in Brazil in 2014, one of the most important governments of the post-neoliberal administrations in the regions, that precisely said NO to ALCA8, ten years ago.

Will there be a “conservative restoration” or will the Argentinian people confront this option, as they have been doing in the last regional elections? Judging by these direct precedent – no government from the “change de epochs” being defeated in elections – one can be an optimist.




1PRO - Republican Proposal (Spanish: Propuesta Republicana, PRO) is a center-right political party in Argentina.
UCR - The Radical Civic Union (Spanish: Unión Cívica Radical, UCR) is a social-liberal political party in Argentina. The party has been ideologically heterogenous, ranging from classical liberalism to social democracy.

2United Socialist Party of Venezuela, the main party of government supporting the revolutionary process

3Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (Democratic Unity Roundtable; MUD), the electoral coalition of right-wing Venezuelan opposition parties.

4Political movement supportive of and following the policies and politics of Hugo Chávez

5The official workplace of the President of Venezuela, the presidential palace.

6Spanish: Mercado Común del Sur; is a sub-regional bloc. Its full members are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. Its purpose is to promote free trade and the fluid movement of goods, people, and currency. It is now a full customs union and a trading bloc.

7The Pacific Alliance (Spanish: Alianza del Pacífico) is a Latin American trade bloc, with some features of further integration. It currently has four member states—Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, which all border the Pacific Ocean.

8The Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) (Spanish: Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas) was a proposed agreement to eliminate or reduce the trade barriers among all countries in the Americas, excluding Cuba.